I think that the idea that the breed must level off at sometime is incorrect. Indeed, Roger Bannister ran the first recorded sub-4 mile decades ago and the record is nearer 3:40 now. And, even though no one is using eugenics to breed faster humans, the records keep going down. Human track runner's are not leveling off, so why should horses?

Moreover, with t-breds, eugenics ARE consciously applied and the time between generations are even shorter. Thus relatively rapid improvments in overall, absolute performance are to be expected. So, I would be very surprised if a decent handicap horse today couldn't handle a hypothetical Secretariat simply because the contemporary horse should have genetic advantages (possibly passed on from Big Red himself). In sum, we can pad the tracks to slow the real times or not, but if the performance figs don't show a speed inflation, then the figs are not accurate across generations (they may, however, be accurate for comparisons within a given generation).

With the above in mind, I am not worried about the Sheets' incorrect assumption that all generations of horses are equal (10K claimer as a constant), as I don't bet Bandini vs. Secretariat. But, what does worry me is that the Sheets fail to account for the fact that track variants change over the course of a given card and are not necessarily the same for sprints and routes. Likewise, Beyer is often too cowardly to give out big numbers when he see them run right before his very eyes. When I buy TG, what I am personally buying better (not infallible) judgment regarding variants for individual races and hence more accurate figs on average.

Often, Beyer numbers, the Sheets, and TG will all say about the same thing about a horse. Obviously, Bellamy Road ran a whopper last out. Anyone can tell you that. But when the figs vary across brand, TG is on the mark more often because JB calulates them as he sees them and is less restrained by the prejudices that blind his competitors.

For instance, why shouldn't I believe that Bandini ran well in the BG? Looked damn fast to me from the rail and on the clock. So why is Beyer only giving him a 103? Did Frankel's horse really fun that poorly in second -- I doubt it. That doesn't mean I don't think Bandini may have had help reaching a big fig based on pace and track conditions and may not run that good again this year. But, nobody's final-time figs accounts for track bias and internal pace (nor should they). That's for us 'cappers to do with the figs after thay are otherwise objectively calculated.