JB:
You stated only 6% top and 23% pair, what % are off and X's. Also, these have to taken with a grain of salt. Some of these horses has no chance of topping and pair at 1 1/4(Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild, etc). I don't know if this was taken into consideration. I think the most pertinent question here is horses that have run the top in their last race, what % top/pair and what % off/X. For instance, for B. Road, I give him about 1% to top, 10% to pair, 40% off and 49% x. However, this gives him about a 45% chance to run a -2 or better which makes him the most likely winner.