Chris: You undoubtedly intended your questions to be rhetorical, but I'm going to address a few anyway, since it will give me the opportunity to mention Art Lander's Herald-Leader Derby Handicapping System, which has enjoyed surprising success over the yrs.

I know we've discussed this before, but BR rated in his 1st race, enough evidence in my mind to prove that he is capable of rating. btw, I saw this morning that Donna Brothers is of the same view.

Sis showed signs in her training that she would not handle CD. The reports I am getting are that GG is showing the same signs.

I'm not sure how reliable the info is, but I was told last night by someone who should know that the track will be left open & fair which, if true, should be apparent throughout the day.

Like many, Art's system ranks the horses based on what he believes are the 10 most important criteria, such as: success at 9f, competing in a route race at 2, running style, the trainer's & jock's previous derby experience, etc,etc. The factor that caught my attention, & reminded me of PGGM at the same time, is how he incorporates Tgraph, namely: "Add the Thoro-Graph figures of the winners of the Florida Derby, Lane's End, Bluegrass Stakes, Wood Memorial, Arkansas Derby and Santa Anita Derby, then divide by 6." Horses which meet or exceed that avg(-1 this yr) in a 3 yr old route race earn pts which contribute to their ranking. I guess everything can be reduced to a formula after all.

It's probably a matter of self interest, but I'm hoping long experience counts for something when looking for bombs on the undercard. For example, today's had me thinking of Mula Gula & Cappuchino, among others.

Good Luck today.