CTC,

I agree with you that several of really fast horses coming in didn't duplicate their recent efforts, but personally I hate the use of the term "bounce".

I think you have to seperate out horses that may have reacted to the strains of their prior effort (a bounce) from those that were simply overrated or questionable as to their ability to duplicate their fast race for other reasons.

All IMHO:

Bellamy Road - There is a huge difference between getting loose on the lead at 9F against Grade 3 horses on a track that is tilted towards speed and getting hung wide in a fast pace at 10F in a 20 horse field with Grade 1 horses taking pot shots at you from everywhere. This horse had never been tested under conditions even remotely similar to this. Plus, even if you want to give him credit for running exceptionally well despite very favorable conditions in the Wood (which I did), it was still very unlikely for him to duplicate it.

Greely's Galaxy - He earned his fast figure in only his 4th start, 2nd route, and against 3rd string horses. I gave him a decent shot to win and even bet him in the race at 20-1, but this horse really fit the profile of a horse not prepared properly for the Derby in terms of seasoning, foundation, etc... IMO, he was clearly more likely to go backwards than several of the other contenders.

Bandini - Ran so horribly I don't know what to make of it. Even if it was "juice off" that doesn't account for this horrible a performance. Keep in mind that most people that didn't like him felt that way because they thought the BG was too slow, not because they thought it was too fast. Personally, I thought it almost had to faster than Beyer made it, but maybe not. He had 3 weeks off and I think this is just one of those "clinkers" that shows up from time to time. Maybe something is wrong with him, but personally I don't think the BG knocked him out.

Afleet Alex - Ran well. I don't what kind of figure he will get, but even if it's not quite as fast at the Arkansas Derby this was a much tougher field and it was 10F. He more or less ran as well as I expected.