Reality is a slippery thing that often eludes the grasp of man. Throughout history, scientists and pseudo-scientists have attempted to define reality by attaching a measurement or number to it. The theory underlying phrenology, a significant influence in 19th century psychology, was that the precise measurement of the human skull provides evidence of the personality traits and attributes of an individual. The use of numeric measurements afforded phrenology's adherents with a sense that it was a true science. It was, of course, nothing of the sort.

The results of today's Derby amply demonstrate the false sense of security that is provided by certain handicapping tools that depend upon systems of numeric quantification. One such system is the Dosage Theory which suggests, with great scientific and statistical pretension, that horses with certain Dosage Indices cannot win the Derby. Today's results would suggest otherwise.

The readers of this board could, I would suspect, think of other handicapping approaches which attempt to provide numeric quantification to that which is immune to such approaches. When their numbers fail to provide the desired result, the "true believer" must devine reality by resorting to theories which are an inherent part of their "scientific" approach, but are always available to explain away the failures of that approach (e.g., this horse or that horse "bounced"). Alternatively, the congregants of this church protect its orthodoxy by alleging that its "truth" was silenced by sinister outside forces (e.g., the super trainers and their drugs).

The truth is simple --- reality is complex and numbers are only numbers.



Post Edited (05-07-05 22:20)