greystable: Q: Good Evening Steve...Do you think BELLAMY ROAD will bounce of his Wood performance and your feelings on him only having 2 races under his belt

Steven_Crist: I'm not a big bounce believer in general, and it's not as if he's coming back on short rest off some grueling duel.

Kingdaly: Q: Despite there being many front runners, is there a chance Spanish Chestnut is out front alone? Why would jockey's compromise their horses chances in a speed duel with a rabbit with no chance of winning.

Steven_Crist: I think it's disgraceful that Spanish Chestnut is running. He has zero chance of winning and the Kentucky derby does not need rabbits. Tabor and Smith may need rabbits in England where without one they might run the first half in 54, but this horse is just clutteing up the field.

(Thought the presence of rabbits made it an intriguing race. Course you gotta understand Bellamania backers wanted an uncontested lead)

paulie_walnuts: Q: Was Sun Kings trip last time out bad enough to give him an excuse for the result?? His start wasn't clean and he was 3 wide most of the way....

Steven_Crist: I don't know if he had a huge excuse, but I do know that a lot of horses, for whatever reason, flounder at Keeneland in their final prep. This is a horse who was close to afleet Alex last year, ran a huge season debut, and if you can overlook the Blue Grass effort, is eligible to jump up and be competitive.

Steven_Crist: I don;t think there are a lot of appealing longshots this year. He's one of them.

Baldy: Q: If Bellamy Road is as good as his latest performance would suggest, could he run a similar race as War Emblem did?

Steven_Crist: I don;t think he'll try to gate to wire. There's plenty of bad speed in the race -- Spanish Chestnut, Going Wild, High Limit -- that he can sit a close fourth down the backstretch and he ought to be able to go by that bunch whenever he pleases.

(Or finally catch them as they tire, whichever the case may be.)

KirisClown2: Q: Steve, can Giacomo hit the board at a huge price?

Steven_Crist: He couldn't hit the board in a bAD Santa anita derby. Why should he do it facing 10 to 20 better horses than he's ever raced against?

(Classic advice, gotta hope KirisClown didn't listen to him.)

ChucklestheClown: Q: Steve. what are the lowest off time odds you would accept upon Bellamy to bet him to win

Steven_Crist: That depends on how ikely a winner you think he is. If you think he's 40 percent, then 3-2 is a square price. If he's the real deal, $7.60 will look like a steal in retrospect.

(Notice the artful dodge: "depends how likely YOU think he is to win"...Also evaluating the race in "retrospect"....o.k. in retrospect toss him from the exotics and key Giacomo!)

THOMASD: Q: STEVEN GIVE US AT LEAST FIVE TOSS OUTS

Steven_Crist: Only five? There are so many this year. Okay, how about Spanish Chestnut, Closing argument, GTiacomo, Flower Alley and Androomeda's Hero.

(Note a box of those tossouts wins a 10K perfecta)

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2005/chat_crist.html