Beyerguy,

>Then, there is the point of racing behind other horses and drafting. It is huge in harness racing, it has to have at least some effect on thoroughbreds.<

This is something that I've heard other trip handicappers talk about from time to time. It's something that I pay very little attention to, but should start immediately.

Here's a quote from Steve Davidowitz:

"CLOSING ARGUMENT was close to the pace and would have paid a dear price for that if not kept ’covered up’ and in reserve behind a wall of horses on the final turn by jockey Cornelio Velasquez. Surged strongly in the final furlong to get a clear lead, but was unable to hold the winner in the final yards. Probably the best overall performance by any Derby horse---as the longest price on the board, no less."