In todays 5th at Churchill, the 6-5 favorte comes in the second slowest in a six horse field. He is 3yr old coming in second of the layoff with a trainer that hits at a 21% clip with 2nd of the layoff. Facing faster 4yr olds, my first thought is to try to beat him with the rail horse, who is 4.5 pts. faster going in, but spotting six pounds or the 2 horse who may just sit the perfect trip behind all the speed thats signed up.

The problem? The fav is the type of horse that beats me all time. It looks like he is really up against it, but he'll end up dueling on a hot pace before he draws off the easiest of winners.

What am I missing?