CHURCHILL DOWNS NOTEBOOK

MAY 12, 2005

by Dick Powell

How do you explain the unexplainable? A 50-1 shot and a 71-1 shot run one-two in the Kentucky Derby (G1) with record exotic payoffs all around. The only thing more improbable than this year’s Derby result was Diego Corrales getting up off the canvas twice in the 10th round and stopping Jose Luis Castillo 30 seconds later in their Lightweight Championship fight Saturday night. You watch enough events and you get to see everything and Saturday’s Run for the Roses left most shaking their heads.

Ordinarily, we would say the race fell apart, draw a line through it, and move on. But we need to at least try to make sense of the outcome for future purposes.

On Saturday, WILDCAT SHOES (Forest Wildcat) won the 2ND race going six furlongs in 1:08.03. And this was after covering the first half in 43.78. You could tell by the flags waving that there was a strong wind coming across the track from the backside to the frontside, so horses in one-turn sprints had the wind at their sides on the straightaways and behind them on the turn.

Obviously, based on the running times of the early races, the main track was rock hard and sprinters never really had to contend with the strong wind. As the day wore on, the inside paths seemed to be the deepest part of the main track. Madcap Escapade (Hennessy) threw out the anchor at the eight pole in the Humana Distaff H. (G1) while racing up against the rail despite setting modest (for her) fractions.

By the time the Derby was run, the wind seemed to die down to a stiff breeze. Still, the horses would be running into it going around the first turn and it would be interesting to see who would benefit.

As expected, Spanish Chestnut (Horse Chestnut [SAf]) gunned to the front in his rabbit’s role and led the field by the stands the first time. Joe Bravo had him three paths away from the rail and he covered the first quarter in 22.28. Around the turn into the wind while a bit wide, he hit the half in 45.38 and I maintain that the impact of the pace was even greater considering it was into the wind.

With the exception of Closing Argument (Successful Appeal), every horse who was near the early pace was nowhere to be found at the end. And he, luckily, had a wide trip on what was probably the best part of the track. With the big field, you were better off being wide and clear than down on a dead rail and in traffic.

So we have a blistering pace with the outside seeming to provide the better footing yet the track was very hard and carrying speed. Usually when you see a chart like this year’s Derby, you can assume it was a tiring track. But it was a rock-hard track that carried speed and the top two finishers had pedigrees that made them very suspect going 10 furlongs. Sounds contradictory to me and it is.

If you told me before the race that there would be a blistering pace into a headwind and that nearly all the front runners would wilt under it, I would have to assume that the strong horses would have a major edge. Stout pedigrees would seem to be the order of the day. But this year’s Derby was not a true test of stamina for those that bided their time early and the hard track enabled the top two to negotiate 10 furlongs despite suspect pedigrees and in the case of the winner, GIACOMO (Holy Bull), a higher than accepted dosage index.