Re: Odds & Ends (400 Views)
Posted by:
Chuckles_the_Clown2 (IP Logged)
Date: May 21, 2005 08:17PM
Bally Ache wrote:
> Splain me this. At CD they came home in 53 & change and Alex
> who looked like a probable winner in midstretch to me couldn't
> hold off two longshots. He beat everbody he figured to have to
> beat but he couldn't close the deal against two horses who
> weren't doing all that much. Why?
Thats a very complicated question and it could have been luck as much as anything that bailed Alex bettors out in the Preakness. When Alex didn't go down in that circumstance theres something besides logic impacting those bets.
-I've believed for some time that Alex had the potential to be the best horse of the crop and even good horses have off days. (Hard not to use "bounce" there) He was favored in the Preakness and that was hard to swallow, but 3-1 figured to get back two previous losing win bets on him too.
-Ascertaining strip bias is the biggest unquantifiable variable for performance figures. Guessing wrong regarding bias will kill you. Guessing right, will accentuate the accuracy of the figures. TGraph makes the best figures on the Triple and prep Races. They don't factor bias in the number. You have to adjust for it and know what you're doing. Giacomo's and Closing Arguments Derby was good, but it was bias aided. Alex ran further against that bias and he clearly regressed (couldn't say bounced)in the Derby. Watch the Ark again. The horse that won that Ark will not lose against this crop.
CtC
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