Several comments here and then let's get onto the Belmont Stakes discussion; I always find these discussions to be excellent food for thought.

--I think the point is that the Beyer Numbers and TG numbers and Sheets numbers are all good predictors of outcomes. But since more people have access to them, you must handicap using more intangibles like class, subtle trip factors, and trainer patterns...things like that, in order to find value.

--Basically, you must find horses to appear to have performed more poorly than they really have (or can be expected to improve). It sounds much more simple than it is, though.

Now back to the Belmont...OK, I'll say it: I'm still not that impressed with War Emblem. He had a very easy trip in the Derby and his trip in the Preakness was, in my opinion, also an easy one. Everyone knows that stalking and taking over from a very weak horse that clearly couldn't get the distance is almost the same is going wire to wire. And he was life or death to hold on against a pretty weak horse in Magic Weisner.

So, who can beat War Emblem in the Belmont? I don't have the answer but I'm leaning more and more strongly to Proud Citizen. PC had wide trips in BOTH the Derby and the Preakness, made a run at War Emblem and almost got even with him in the Preakness despite his very wide trip, and held pretty well to be 3rd. I know I just denograted Magic Weisner so how can I admire or tout Proud Citizen? Again, it's all in the trip; Magic Weisner sat a perfect rail trip the entire Preakness until deep stretch (after the turn, anyway) and then made the one move, which looked much better than it really was.

Proud Citizen is very well-bred for distance and well-trained by a guy (who I normally can't stand) named Lukas who's had success in the Belmont. And I'm just not that impressed with anything else in the race, thus far. Sunday Break had a perfect trip in the Wood and in the Peter Pan and didn't have a powerful move in either. Like a Hero doesn't appear to be prepared for a 1 and a half mile trip. Who should I be looking at more closely? How am I off-base? C'mon, let's talk Belmont.

Anyone care to guess at the odds on the major contenders? I think WE will be around even money and PC around 9-2; just a guess, of course. Sunday Break will probably be closer to 7-2.

Dark Star