I haven't really studied the race yet, but I have mixed feelings about PA. Maybe he doesn't like an off track and his improving form has been hidden by it. Then again maybe he's got problems and he's going nowhere fast. I think you need a pretty big price to play him though. Even if he's been running so poorly because of the off track, that still doesn't guarantee that he's going to come back on a fast track and run the type of type he'll need to win here.