Jimbo-- the relationship between points and lengths changes with distance, at 7f the 15 points is about 21 lengths, still a lot. Yes, that is an extraordinary event, I don't ever recall seeing anything like it, which is why I mentioned it. What I think happened is that sealing the track squeezed the water out of it, harrowing it exposed the dirt to air and it dried out even more over the next couple of hours before the last race, and they were not adding any more water because of fear of the storm.

Regardless, you have to make your decision based on the horses. It's absolutely clear that the track changed speed (see what happens if you add 15 points to that race), so the only question becomes how much it changed.There were a couple of ways to go, that looked like the most likely, I'll review it when the horses have run back a couple of times.