Re: pletcher (545 Views)
Posted by: (IP Logged)
Date: June 30, 2005 01:23PM
HP,
Drugs or no drugs, the lightly raced high quality stock he gets slowly moves up the ladder while running progressively faster over time. That's the clear cut profile of a good horseman and always has been. The pure drug guys tend to move their horses up dramatically and quickly.
Spotting horses is a skill even if you are using super duper high test. You still have to accurately assess how much ability your horse has relative to the competiton. You have to know what distance/surface etc... he prefers and put him against horses he can actually beat at that time. You have to map out a schedule that makes sense. If he's not doing well, you have to back off. If an experiment fails you have to change gears etc.... You have to avoid horses that can beat you.
Let's assume he is using something illegal 100% of the time. Now let's say he stops and all of his new horses start running 5 lengths slower. IMO, he would still win a ton of races because he'd run them where they belong - it would just be at a lower level than they run now. He might not win as many Graded Stakes etc... but he'd be winning listed stakes at second string tracks, allowance races, etc... instead because he knows what he's doing and knows how to spot horses.
On the flip side take a look at Nick Zito's record. Here's another guy that gets great stock. IMHO he has less of a clue about how much ability his horses have than the average fan that can read the DRF a little. His horses are often spotted horribly. Their performances are up and down all over the place. Some people are suspicious of his activities too. They may be right, but his lowly 10%-11% win percentage is the result of his lack of skill. If he's using drugs it doesn't help him win a lot because he is lacking skills that guys like Pletcher and Frankel have.
IMO you have to seperate the skill and the illegal activity. You can be a cheat and still be highly skilled and vice versa.
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