Two Handicapping Questions (805 Views)
Posted by:
jimbo66 (IP Logged)
Date: July 19, 2005 09:20PM
First question has to do with Wednesday's third race at Belmont, which is a very interesting race to handicap. You have four horses that seem fast enough to win, based on T-Graph figures. My question to Jerry or Allen (whoever handicapped the race) is how did they treat the running line of the probable 4th choice, Skip Queen. The horse's last two races are both as fast as the favorite. They were achieved in claimers, now the horse "moves up" to allowance conditions, which sometimes still helps get a price, even though the horse is fast enough to win. However, the horse achieved the first figure back in October. Then there was a long layoff and he came back in May and fired the same figure (paired up his top). But, now another layoff since May. I know TG recommends rest between starts, but a short layoff, right after a long layoff, is a "toss" for many handicappers and a sign the horse has some physical problem. But at a probable 5-1 or higher, as co-fastest in the race, it is tempting to use him.
2nd question goes back to the 3rd race at Belmont on July 15th. Been meaning to ask this since the 16th, but I forgot. I handicapped the race that day and couldn't find a bet. Crunch the Numbers looked much the best to me and was 3-5 or so, so I skipped the race. The next day when I read the analysis in the redboard room, T-Graph recommended betting on Looking Best with a comment like "he has a pattern that sometimes pops a price". I am paraphrasing, but the analysis definitely mentioned the pattern. I looked at the Graph and didn't understand exactly what pattern the handicapper was talking about. The horse won at 7-1 in a four horse field. Can either Jerry or Allan expand on what "pattern" they were referring to, as a teaching tool (maybe post the graph so those that don't have it can see it).
Thanks,
Jim
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