Anyone look at this race?

Smuggler looks to be 7/5 after her Mother Goose win. Smuggler should again have a decent pace cut out in front of her, considering that Bailey is unlikely to have Summerly "wrapped up" in the early stages again. The Ward/Oxley entrant is lightly raced and a question at the distance, but the 1:11.1 AP blowout on Bastille Day leads one to believe she will also be out pacing. Spun Sugar seemed eager under Castellano in the MG, but John Velazquez has rated her in the 4 times he rode her. Smuggler should be sitting behind all of these pace and near pace types, waiting to pounce.

So Smuggler should get a perfect trip under the meet's dominant jockey. Her pair of "2s" make her the fastest filly in the race. I thought her win over Spun Sugar was easier than it looked, and Prado commented after the MG that Smuggler "had something left".

For all of those reasons, I will be making a small win bet on and some doubles with SEEKING THE ANTE. Her sire, Seeking the Gold, won the Super Derby when it was a ten furlong race. Her dam, Antespend, was a multiple Grade 1 stakes winning animal. Her maternal grandsire, Spend A Buck, won at least one Grade 1 at ten furlongs. She should love the distance, will be sitting off the pace (though not as far off as in the MG), has won at Belmont, and has won twice for the Mig. I am looking for odds in excess of 12/1 here.

Also appealing to me is STA's "Pair/Pair/ Pair" TG pattern, which I commented on prior to the Belmont Stakes. It seems like the Pair/Pair/Pair pattern is usually predicting a chance of a new top in excess of 20%, with negative exposure ("off" and "x") less than 40%. STA's TG pattern actually predicts a 28% chance of a new top, which could move her closer to Smuggler's 2s and Summerly and Spun Sugar's 3s. (Could somebody at TG provide me an aggregate profile of all the Pair/Pair/ Pair patterns? I would be curious...)

I admit that if Smuggler and STA run against each other 10 times at varied distances, Smuggler wins nine of them. STA's best chance might come at today's distance, but I admit that her chances rely on a hotly contested pace.

Golf Note: TGJB, 135 slope rating from the middle tees sounds pretty challenging to me; I'm having trouble these days getting the ball under the windmill and into the clown's mouth.