Turf Sprints (1111 Views)
Posted by:
dodie (IP Logged)
Date: August 03, 2005 06:08PM
These are the most difficult races for me to handicap. I handled them in the past by just ignoring them, but they're becoming increasing popular (thank you, greedy, quick return on investment, breed for speed not stamina, etc, etc breeding industry) at tracks around the country, especially during the summer months. I now hear that even Saratoga is cardidng them.
Given that they usually attract large fields, that has to mean there's value in these races. I just have a tough time finding it.
My approach starts out the same as with turf routes. Focus only on turf numbers, then look at breeding stats, then look at trainer stats, then look at the jock. OK, so far, so good. But then only 2 of the entrants have more than 2 turf sprint races in the pps, 2 others may have 5 turf races, but they're all at a route, 2 of the entrants have eye popping dirt spring numbers, but iffy turf breeding, and the remaining 4 have mediocre dirt sprint numbers, unknown/average turf breeding, and are trained by guys not know for their turf training. So I end up concentrating on the proven turf sprinters and the turfers, then get beat by the 6-1 first timer on turf with the good dirt sprint numbers.
My current thinking is to go into almost total condition handicapping mode, looking for well spaced, forging numbers that promise improvement in the upcoming race, no matter what the surface. My sense is that loving/hating the surface is going to have less to do with a horse's performance than his current condition.
DOES ANYONE HAVE ANY INSIGHTS INTO HANDICAPPING THESE TURF SPRINTS?!