Distance is always a factor, as is pace, the weather and other things. The figures and the pattern are a guide. Figures are obviously past history and we are in uncharted territory (just like the Derby, so what is so unique about the Belmont, S. Crist?), but I have to start someplace. In this instance, the figures, the pattern and the distance are telling me to try to beat War Emblem at 2-1, since I think all these factors are working in the same direction and may finally have a cumulative effect. I need more info on the contenders to say anything else (though that doesn't usually stop me). Sunday Break (short price) and Perfect Drift should both 'qualify' for the distance, but I don't know enough about the rest just yet. HP