SFTF had very few bounces and some but not too much lot of development, which would lead you to believe that at some point he was capable of better than he had run before. Now he was about 9 months (by memory) from the first time he had hit the number, he had run it again this year and not reacted, which was a sign of strength, and then had no chance to run a top-- but ran relatively well-- on a dead rail last time. As a four year old he is supposed to be stronger than he was when he first hit the number at three (degree dependent on pedigree, training style etc). There was close to no chance he would not at least pair his old top, and I would have made him about 50/50 to run a new one.

This brings up an old sheet concept I talked about at the discussion on Sunday-- second time off a top, third time off a top. When you are talking about horses at a stage of their careers when they are still developing (like until maybe mid 4yo), each time they get back to a top, all other things (meaning intervening pattern) being neutral, they are less likely to bounce than before, and more likely to break through. This is because by definition each time they are older (and theoretically stronger) than before.

Example-- Santana Strings.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 08/09/2005 02:32PM by TGJB.