Vicarage estimates, using the same breakouts we use with the Thoro-Patterns:

New Top 3%

Pair (meaning within a point plus or minus of the previous top) 17%

Off race 40%

X 40%

Given he was spotting major weight to several contenders and the prospective ground loss, a reasonable guess is that the first two categories (20%) would be maybe 50/50 to get him in the top two, making him 10% overall to be in the exacta.

As I said at the discussion group, if you sit down and figure it out you will see that a 3-1 shot is on about half the exacta tickets. If you can toss one, you have a huge edge. If you can toss a horse shorter than that, well...