Extra Innings (910 Views)
Posted by:
richiebee (IP Logged)
Date: August 13, 2005 03:54AM
Basically a meaningless Mets game, but headed for extra innings...
After my post stating that the NYRA late Pick 4 is on races 6-9, Litfin played a P4 on races 7-10 as his Saturday selection. I guess I posted too late to help him.
6th Sara (First Leg NYRA P4?) Buxton Hill (3YO June foal) and Bethpage Black (named for a famous LI golf course) (3YO May foal) may be developing now against some older mediocre competition. I will expect either one or both of them to move forward to a 10 or 11, while Wilfulness has posted 12s in 6 of his last 7 turf races. Bux Hill has shown improving speed for trainer Wallace, who has struggled since taking over for Iwinski. Beth Black defeated Of All Times, who has come back to run 2 big races at Saratoga (win and a second).
7th Sara has a bit of everything: A Dickinson odometer rollback, the obligatory Dubai Brothers horse, Spa lover Pomeroy, the hot Smokume (with his quickly becoming overrated jock), a fragile, lightly raced Frankel/Stronach horse, the new track record holder at CD...
...and then there is Voodoo, who is 2/2 at the Spa (0 as a 4YO, negative 0 as a 5YO) who also posted a 0 in his first back from a layoff (True North). The lightweight in the field (can Castellano do 112?) and possibly 10 - 12/1, he gets a small wager from me.
[Query for someone with a database: What percent of Graded Stakes races (HCP or otherwise) are won by the lightweighted animal in the race? My guess less than 2 %?]
Fun fact: I'm the Tiger is 2/8 at 6 furlongs, 4/4 at 6- 1/2 furlongs.
8th Sara: Frankel keeps talking about the big lead King's Drama will have, but his other horse (uncoupled) Vangelis is arguably faster and certainly classier. Would like Silverfoot a bit more, but his Off/Pair/Top TG pattern is predictive of regression. The only one who seems incapable of winning this is Rochester (winless 04-05, is there a hurdle race in his future?)
9th Sara: hate to single obvious chalk, but The Daddy ran a TG# of 4 in his debut. Only Brave Sir Robin (7) and Cool Days (6) have recorded single digit TGs. Good Spa works ease my nerves over betting Albarado at 3/5, as does the fact that the Frankel/Hollywood shipper/NY Bred won Friday's last race with ease.
P4: Buxton Hill, Bethpage Black (6th), Voodoo, Pomeroy, Kelly's Landing (7th), Vangelis, Relaxed Gesture, Silverfoot and Dreadnaught (8th) and The Daddy (9th) for $2 = $48