Since I'm one of those handicappers who doesn't give a rat's ass who wins an eclipse award; am interested more in great prices than great horses, I'm willing to take a shot at an answer here.
First of all, let me say richiebee that I find you a very bright, very creative voice on this board, and think you have set up a wonderful conundrum with this question.'
My partial answer is this. I think its possible for a three year old to win horse of the year and not the three year old title. And that's what Lost in the Fog is in position to do. If he were to win the BC Sprint and neither Fleet Alex nor Flower Alley were to win the Classic, then I think he's obviously the Sprint Champion and legitimate Horse of the Year candidate by virtue of doing everything they asked of him in an undefeated manner.
However, he didn't do what three year olds are supposed to do. Namely, win a triple crown race. Afleet Alex has won two, impressively. Therefore, he's had the best three year old campaign in my mind.
But then I must admit I also think Kirk Gibson should have won the World Series MVP for his one at bat that year, and I think the David Horry should eventually make it into the NBA Hall of Fame just from his playoff performances. In other words I realize I might hold some unorthodox opinions when it comes to sports.
In any case, I'll leave the scenario with Flower Alley going on to win the Breeder's Cup Classic to others who care about these awards more than I do. But I certainly think such a victory does complicate matters a bit.
Which brings me back to another dilemna created by the Breeder's Cup. It strikes me as strange that the Breeder's Cup heralds itself as the World Series of Racing, and yet the winner of the Classic is not Horse of the Year. I understand why, yet it's just slightly incongruous to me.
Anyway, great question.