TGJB,

Do you (or anyone else) have any insights into how to deal with races where one or more starters only has turf figures and today's race is on dirt?

Todays 9th race at Saratoga is one example.

The 7 and 9 both had good recent form, but one had been running on dirt and the other turf. Today's race was on dirt. They both ran very well.

The situation comes up most often in "off the turf" races, but it does come up at other times also. If there's a full record for both surfaces, you can often make an educated guess as to where the horse is and how he will run, but if not it's a major problem.

Just from experience, it seems to me that horses that earned good figures on turf do better when switched to dirt than the other way around (pedigree "not" considered). I would guess that you should have noticed some things as a result of making figures for both grass and dirt for this long. Anything to contribute?