big18741 Wrote:
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> Nice writeup and a terrific betting race.

Ant, I respect your opinion. I think you're the guy that was very high on Scrappy T. This is an interesting ROTW.

Sun King has reverted to his juvenile form with the blinkers. Zito tried to make him a Classic distance horse and then deftly changed tactics again. The problem here is that other than United there are no committed front end horses. Barring a bobble on the break, theres little reason why Sun King can't be urged up to the front. In that event, worst case scenario is about three wide. Though bounce/regress may be more of a factor with a push to clear.

United appears to have a subtlely progressive pattern to me. (The improvement is hidden in Turf starts skewing the graph.) That last dirt sprint was his best dirt effort yet and he's been a better turf horse since then, leading me to believe he will be a better dirt horse. This horse appears situated near the angle I discussed the other day. Additionally, its hard to deny hes coming off the Turf running. The caveat is, each time he's met better horses he's been soundly handled, but his pattern was more erratic back then and he wasn't meeting them at Philadelphia. He's only 10% to top on Thoroquick, but Weaver has employed White Mercedes in the past and though a mortal elsewhere he has small sample supertrainer status at the meet. I'd demand 11-1 on the thoroquick admonition, but I think he'll be that and 750K pots bring out the man. Projecting, this horse could very easily run a 3 on the pattern. With ground and weight savings 2's might not catch him. Unlike some in this race, this horse does have some seasoning, but assuming you are on to a pattern, the main concern has to be. "Does this horse really want 9 marks with some tougher horses around? I'm certainly not sure.

Agreed Quadrant is live. He's been running against elders and that horse that beat him last is no slouch.

Regarding Smokescreen, he was right there with three in a blanket finish 6 lengths behind Park Avenue Ball. Sun King beat Park Avenue by 2 in the next heat. Granting Smokey wasn't ever gonna get to Park Avenue, it looks like he may have gotten surprised in his blinkers. They are off. He's been a troubled horse and looks dead game to me. I like him.

Assume Sun King loses two lengths on wide, which may or may not happen. He's also got a length to give back on weight off the Haskell and is sitting on two big efforts. He'll have to go forward to ensure a win. Will he?



>
> Sun King is the best horse,but this is a bad scene
> for him.I have to bet the race with him running no
> better than third,and hopefully off the board.That
> post is a killer,and he won't ever see the lead
> which he seems to want since being blinkered.The
> beauty of it is he's part of a Zito entry which
> will make him even shorter priced.
>
> Phila Park usually has a scraped speed biased
> surface on Pa Derby Day,but they just resurfaced
> the main track.The horsemen are raving about its
> fairness and cushion.Have to see how the track is
> playing over the next couple of days,and on Monday
> early in the card.
>
> If speed is holding United can get involved.Weaver
> has gone blinkers on and turf to dirt both times
> he ran this horse at Phila Park and each time
> resulted in big new tops.Both of those were in 7f
> Pa bred stake sprints which he wired.Tony Black on
> and he will get the lead against this field.The
> distance is a question,but his price should be
> fat.
>
> I like Quadrant a little bit-he can just clunk up
> on the rail and get a piece,but I really like
> Golden Rainbow.The post isn't great,but the price
> should be,and Rose usually figures out a way to
> save some ground,at least on the first
> turn.Perfect running style for this race if the
> track isn't a cement highway.
>
> I don't like Smokescreen-he's a bit of a hanger
> from what I've seen ,and I don't think the extra
> 1/16th does him any good -plus Luzzi's a real
> anchor.Have to let him beat me.
>
> Great betting race.
>
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> Edited 1 times. Last edit at 09/03/05 08:17AM by
> big18741.






Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/03/2005 12:45PM by Chuckles_the_Clown2.