To answer Jimbo's question from yesterday about development:

In simplest terms, there is no development until a horse establishes a level by pairing up or bouncing. 20-15-10 is a horse getting fitter, or learning what he is doing-- once he runs another 10 (or bounces) he has establed a level of ability, and development can be measured from that point.

There is no development in the example you cited, especially since (as you say) first outs are frequently meaningless-- my guess would be that maybe half the horses that pay $80 or more are second out lifetime, where the public takes a first out too seriously. Additionally, you have surface questions, as well as intent, since the horse in question may have been turf meant right along.

That horse had not established a level, so development doesn't come into play, and yes, it is something that you look at over a longer period of time, like spring to fall 3yo, at the very least.

But there is something else to consider-- evry forward move makes a horse more likely to bounce, since at each level there are less horses for whom that is not a serious effort that can set them back. There are less 2yos that can run an 8 than a 10, etc. So if you don't have an established level, you need to look at the horses in question in terms of where the figure it just ran puts it in the horse population (compared to other Sept 2yos, for example), And you have to correlate all that with other info that might influence things-- Pletcher gets lots of horses that break 8, Sciacca does not, pedigree (both in quality and early vs. late), training style (wind 'em up vs. slow development).



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/07/2005 03:56PM by TGJB.