Kev:

This is very non- scientific, and goes against my methodology for capping a big event such as the BC, which involves hours of poring over DRF and TGs and watching race replays where available. I have posted this information on the TG board before, and apologies to those who have already read it.

A friend of mine told me that a win wager on every horse who went off at odds of 20/1 within a couple minutes of post made you a winner over the 20 years of BC racing. Of course the $260 or so mutuel on Arcangues figures heavily in this scenario.

Last 2 years: In 2004, 32 runners were more than 20/1 at post time. If you wagered $20 on each of these, you layed out $640, but were rewarded with a $578 payoff on Better Talk Now and a $586 payoff on Wilko. Profit = $524.

In 03, 34 runners were 20-1 or above at post time. For an investment of $680, you cashed with Adoration $834, Cajun Beat for $476, and Action This Day for $556. Profit = $1186.

Of course there were many years when the 20/1 angle produced no winners. Its fun to play with the numbers, say changing the threshold to 15/1 or 30/1 and see what results. This game was also a little more interesting before common pools when you could go to your local simo facility and "shop" odds.

I will file a full report if and when i can procure a full set of charts (84- 04)



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 09/29/2005 10:40AM by richiebee.