Yes, I believe that averages used correctly are the most accurate way of determining variants. That is the core of this debate. If you don't believe in them, then you are only left with the TG methodology, so obviously you should use TG.

I think of "bad rails" the same way I think of changing track speeds on the same day, they happen, but nearly as often as people think.

I can't argue that any of these "anomolies" don't exist. But if I take seriously everything you say, then I would buy nobody's sheets because they really just made up. The real question is how often does this stuff happen and how do you know it happened. When JB adjusts for anomolies, I would guess that sometimes he is right, sometimes he is wrong, and the same with Ragozin.

One inaccurate number for all horses in a race may or may not show up through examination. It depends on the types of horses, how they run the next time, and how "inaccurate" the number is. Further, what if the "real" number is somewhere in between the Ragozin and Thorograph number. More importantly, we always have these debates about a particular day that just occurred, thus it is impossible to see if what you are saying is true. That is why it wouled be necessary to look at a number of sheets over the last three years and have JB point out where he adjusted for "anomolies" and then maybe we could see what happened.

I'll close by asking you and JB a question. I live in So. Cal. and own a couple of horses. I can tell you that horse racing today is not the same as it was even 5 years ago. More horses are souped up on steroids and god knows what elese (mostly legally). This makes horses run big efforts, sustain them for a small period of time and then fall apart. They cannot fill any races here other than maiden races. Thus, seeing sheets that show horses doing crazy things at the major tracks corresponds with I see happening to racing. (I won't name anybody on this board, but I would be interested in seeing the TG sheets for a couple of trainers in So. Cal.)

Why is it that Ragozin's sheets for mid-level claiming races at small tracks where horses run every two weeks have much more consistent running lines? Are only the big tracks "variable" in major cities? Why is that when I started betting in the early '90s did the Ragozin sheets look much smoother? Did these track issues only surface recently?