Jerry,

"6-- What those who have not made projection figures don't get (especially if they have read Beyer or some of the earlier books which push the use of pars) is that it's not just about the winners. When you have a tight data base using weight and ground you use lots of horses within each race to make your figures."

This is really not true. Beyer never advocated making projection variants based on just the winner. He uses all the horses in the race also. His references to using PARs were mostly limited to the first few weeks you start making figures at a track until you have enough data to make projections.

The question of tweaking figures to keep them in line with expected PARs over time is another issue, but I haven't been able to get the full answer to that.