SoCalMan wrote,

"Last month, I lost three times in one night with pocket pairs higher than another pocket pair (twice I had AA to QQ and once I had QQ to 99). All three times we were all in before the flop. All three times the lower pair tripped up. We all know that a higher pair is a prohibitive favorite over a lower pair, but that tripping up happens. For it to happen three times consecutively is a longshot but within the realm of consideration."

I have to say I have no interest in playing poker (although I like watching it on TV) -- but I am interested in how odds are figured. What you are describing does not sound like a longshot to me...

In this example, you say the higher pair is a prohibitive favorite in this situation and I would agree that this is how it is conventionally figured (the stupid thing would've popped up on the screen and shown you as having a....75% chance or so of winning).

However, I think this is wrong because....aren't your odds of flipping another Ace EXACTLY THE SAME the other players odds of flipping another Queen? In other words, before the flop, there are two aces and two queens, so both of you have AN EQUAL CHANCE of getting trips (2-in-however many cards are left, right? Those odds are exactly the same...). So in reality, you are absolutely NOT a prohibitive favorite. The more accurate assessment would be...IF you hit your Ace you have a MUCH BETTER chance of winning...but your chances of getting the Ace are EXACTLY THE SAME as him getting his Queen.

I know this is a horse racing board, but this particular example was interesting.... I think you were unlucky, but you were not a "prohibitive favorite" going into the flop...regardless of what that stupid percentage calculator thing-y says...

HP