The analysis does mention him as "a contender on his best"; I believe he was left out of the Overview because at his projected odds (3-1?) he would have to be "a strong contender on his usual effort despite the post" to be worth mentioning and he is clearly not that. I agree with your analysis on his pattern though and would save with him if going long in the race. It comes down to the odds and he'll be well supported; there doesn't look like any others to really suck the big money in here.

I'm not sure what he means by a "square price" on Desert Boom. I imagine he (and the hot Sherman) will take their share, they're not sneaking up on anybody. They were 7-5 in the Cal Cup at this track.

On the other hand, I think Who's Crying Now could be a big price. Love the jock switch and the race scenario. Maybe trouble wont find him (or vice-versa?) and he gets a big piece of the million. Wont be the 65-1 when placed at the Gulf last spring but maybe better than 15-1? Can the TG ROTW affect the odds in a bad way? I would have gladly paid the $5!