for certain twoshoes, you're not the only one. Although one would expect Pletcher horses to take cash at the windows, especially when they look good on paper and are getting the hype (ie. selected by public handicappers), there are times when they are bet much heavier than anticipated, look like underlays, and then perform like king kong, indicating some funny business. I wouldn't say Bluegrass Cat is an example of this because he was not facing any real accomplished types in here and was supposed to win, but here are three examples off the top of my head from the recent past in high profile races that were:


2005 Bluegrass - Bandini;
coming off a loss in the Fla derby and relatively unaccomplished; looked like the 4th choice at maybe around 6-1 or higher; this was considered at the time by many the toughest derby prep last year with the likes of High Limit, Sun King, and that Lukas piece shipping in off that jiggy jig in SoCal; for @#$% sakes the only one I can recall that liked him on this board was CH if that means anything

Result; opened up at 2-1, drifted up to 7-2, ran a figure so outrageously fast that Jerry rechecked it a hundred times, made a token appearance at CD a few weeks later, and hasn't been heard from since


2005 Carter - Forest Danger;
yes he was coming off a fast alw race in Fla but he wasn't a proven commodity in stakes and this was a race won the previous three years by the likes of multiple G1 winners Pico Central, Congaree, & Affirmed Success; now he had to face very speedy proven stakes winners from top barns such as Medalist and Don Six, and he was starting outside of them on the Aqu main which at least in my opinion favors inside speed; he was certainly a contender here off his last but had some obvious question marks, plus regular jock and crowd fave Johnny V was out of state (riding Bandini?)

Result; opened up at 4-5!, pretty much stayed there, had a bit of trouble at the start! and spotted a few to the quick ones, and then came wide on the turn and went by them like they were nothings while earning a huge fig, came back for the Forego a few months later with a pathetic effort, and hasn't been heard from since


2002 Whitney - Left Bank;
arguably one of the fastest sprinters ever, but never had success in previous stakes attempts routing; this race didn't exactly come up empty either that year with the likes of Lido Palace the defending champ and a mult G1 winner, Street Cry the Dubai champ who was coming off a smashing Stephen Foster, and Macho Uno the overhyped but lightly raced and highly regarded BC juve champ with Pat Day; Leading into the race, Left Bank was given a chance to upset if he can steal away on the lead against his stalking foes but at a late hour The Chief entered some speedy type to end that possibility

Result; was 9-2 with less than 1 minute to post and was suddenly hit to 7-2 as the gate opened, sat 2nd behind a very fast pace as expected and then proceeded to make a move blowing away the field while matching the track record; died shorty after that


In all fairness, I cherry picked these three incidents to advocate a theory and sure it's not as clear cut as something like 58 perimeter columns and 25 core columns of a 47 story steel framed building all failing at the same split second for no apparent reason, but I only toss Pletcher when he's an "expected underlay" like Bluegrass Cat where I lost anyway but still believe it was the right thing to do that pays off in the long run. The alarm goes off though when he's clearly in a TOUGH spot AND bet like he's not, and this shouldn't imply that when he's NOT bet more than expected that he's a toss. Hey, if it wasn't confusing it wouldn't be as effective for them, whoever they are, and as fun for us.