She was actually about 40-1.

Today she won a 3YO filly 25,000 claimer by a head.

The race time was 1.12.95

In the next race 4YO 25,000 claimers won in 1.11.08

One great angle for cheap maiden winners is to play them back in their age group vs winning claimers. When they finally hit form theres generally not much running in those cheap 3YO claimers either.

If you extrapolate her fractions to a final 7 furlong time, it comes close to about a 1.27

Is it evidence that shes in form and game for her cheap class? Yeah, it probably is. Is it evidence her race Strub day was signficantly slowed by nature? I'm not sure theres much evidence of that in her race.

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not that I had her (or that she looked like a
> contender in the race), but guess who just won the
> third at SA at 35-1. You all might remember the
> discussion on this board about my splitting the
> variant on Strub day, right before the maiden
> claimer-- which I took off more from than any
> other race. Well the winner of that race (Dee's A
> Legend) just came back to win, and as tough to
> have her as it was, it would be a lot tougher if
> you did the 2/4 race with the first three races on
> that day-- and add 6 or 7 points to her last.
>
> There's never proof in this game, but there is
> evidence. And this is one step in that direction.