Re: I'm Back (562 Views)
Posted by:
SoCalMan2 (IP Logged)
Date: March 30, 2006 06:15AM
P-Dub Wrote:
> This horse is currently the 2nd-3rd betting choice
> by several offshore bookmakers. If he wins he'll
> pay decent enough just from the size of the field,
> but I doubt he will be a huge price.
>
Good point, P-Dub. I have not paid close enough attention to what the expected line will be, and, no matter how good I feel about Godolphin prep, it may not be enough to merit a bet if, on the day in question, the horse either does not look fast enough, its pattern looks bad, or its odds are insufficient. If the price is not offering a good value, then no matter how good one feels about the prep, there is no great pot of gold to win for the benefit of one's convictions.
I was intending to convey (obviously done sloppily) that I was hoping there would be an upward influence on the horse's price due to its unconventional prep which upward price influence could be a source of benefit for those of us in the minority who view such prep positively. I am hopeful that maybe the offshore betting is heavily influenced by Europeans who do not share the same prejudice American bettors do. This phenomenom allowed me to cash Ghostzapper in the Breeders Cup Classic at 4-1 on English bookmaking odds. I am hoping the reverse will be true and the odds at Churchill Downs may be skewed the other way. Having said all this, I have not seen the horse's sheet nor his competitors' yet, so as my mother would (and does) say, "this is all Jakie get out of the buggy!"