Time for the "serious" Derby preps to start.

Looks like the Florida Derby is going to be an excellent betting race. A full field, and a heavy favorite, 3rd or 4th fastest, breaking from an outside post with a short run into the first turn. Undefeated, but 3 turf races and one sloppy track win.

The contenders, in my order of preference.

Sunriver - Have to worry about the bounce, after the big fig last time, getting down to a "2". But you get Pletcher, Velasquez, the fastest horse in the race, a decent post position and tactical speed. All this, plus better than 5-1 is likely. 8\7-8 points of development since his two year old top means he may not run much faster in the near term, but a repeat of the "2" with a decent trip, might be enough to win.

Flashy Bull - Not sure the price on this horse will be as good as Sunriver, but he draws well and has speed. Should get a nice trip. Got down to a 2.75 last time, which is only 3+ points of development from his 2 year old top. Could move forward again and if he does move up a couple points, he could be one to consider in the Derby in 5 weeks, assuming the connections don't try to squeeze one more prep into him.

Saint Augustus - Normally, I would try to beat a horse like this, who earned a big figure in a 4 horse race, against no competition. But I think this one might be worth looking at. He also has tactical speed and is trained by pletcher, both positives. Will also be a price, which is good. And finally, the "3" got him back to his 2 year old top. He could have another forward move. Of course the "other side of that coin" is that he bounced badly last time he ran the "3". definitely an exotics use for me, but probably not my key horse.

Rehoboth ran his "3" with a trouble line, so he is usable at a price, but I don't like the trainer much. Can't blame anybody for using Sharp Humor off the big number sprinting in the Hutcheson, but I have seen the horse run a few times and he doesn't look like a two turn horse to me. depending on price, will probably use in the 2nd or 3rd slot though.

To me, the value is in hoping Barbican goes off around even money and betting against him. Probably will key Sunriver, with the other horses above.

Good luck.

Jim