Re: We learned a lot today (540 Views)
Posted by:
alm (IP Logged)
Date: April 09, 2006 11:22AM
About the only broad stroke statistic that seems to mean something year-to-year is the one that suggests the Derby winner will have lost his final prep. Yesterday's races (and the Florida Derby) will probably fall into that category when we view the Derby in retrospect.
The impressions given by the losers in yesterday's races left me with two worth recalling during the next few weeks. (Not that impressions mean more than rational analysis.)
Point Determined did wierd things at Santa Anita, going to sleep in the turn, but waking up down the lane. He gave the impression of being the real thing, using this race as a proper prep.
AP Warrior may be the bet of the two, however. Santa Anita has been won often by horses like Brother Derek and he impresses me about as much as several in the past who went nowhere at Churchill. AP Warrior chased the winner into a paceless pace, used great acceleration to catch him and then tired just the way one would expect in that situation. Maybe the best prep possible for the big one.
The horses running in the Mid West and on the East Coast won't count this year and will be running for third and fourth. None of them impressed at all.