high roller Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The SeeSaw Effect
>
> Oh Brother, here we go again. Could this be the
> return of Lost in The Fog - he’s parading around
> as 3 year old in a zipped up Brother Derek horse
> suit?
>
> See Saw! Slow pace…..big Beyer (BRIS, Thoro-
> Graph, Sheets – take your pick)…..up, down.
> Unreliable speed figure. Don’t fall for them.
>
> James Quinn said it right, “Thus, whenever the
> pace of the race has been unusually fast or
> unusually slow, the resulting speed figures can be
> outrageously false.
>
> Let’s do last weekend’s Derby prep race pace
> report. You will notice the, uh, playground
> affect. (I use the Beyer figures here and before
> because I believe they should be the industry
> standard. Use any other fig you want but let’s use
> the Beyer figs so we know what we’re comparing.)
>
> Illinois Derby – pace of the race Slow 9 – Beyer
> 109 – Sweetnorthernsaint
> Santa Anita Derby – pace of the race Slow 5 –
> Beyer 108 – Brother Derek
> Wood Memorial – pace of the race Fast 9 – Beyer 93
> – Bob and John
>
> Now let’s have some fun. Let’s adjust these speed
> figures for pace of the race. And let’s say that
> the adjusted speed figure is the number the horse
> in question would have run if the pace of the race
> had been par. In other words, let’s bring them
> back to ground zero and see where we are. I used
> the Beyer length adjustments for 1 mile and an 1/8
> th, of course.
>
> Sweetnorthernsaint – 109 Beyer - 93 Giles
> Brother Derek – 108 Beyer - 99 Giles
> Bob and John - 93 Beyer - 108 Giles
>
> I know, I know, it’s heresy, a joke even, but the
> inverse relationship between pace and final time
> is alive and well, as you can see, so I just can’t
> resist.
>
> But back to Brother Derek - He does not own the
> only early pace running style in this year’s Ken
> tucky Derby. There’s a bunch. Will he show another
> dimension? Can he handle a fast pace? We just
> don’t know. But speculating on racehorses is not
> really about picking THE winner. It’s about
> backing a horse that has a better (and realistic)
> chance of winning than the odds the betting public
> has given it. All the handicapping tools we use
> are there to do one thing, assess value.
>
> Brother Derek will be a screaming underlay. The
> pundits will tell you that his final fraction
> demonstrates that he’s a real racehorse. It has to
> be fast! The pace was slow so the final fraction
> has to be fast. There’s just no way around it.
>
> Win – throw him out. Exacta – throw him out.
> Trifecta – throw him out. Pick 3, pick 4, pick 6 –
> throw him out. But Randy? What if he wins, shows
> something like more versatility and/or superior
> pace ability? Well, I would say you did the right
> thing, anyway. You threw him out. You didn’t
> reinforce the piss-poor behavior that will only
> send you to the poorhouse if you continue that
> kind of practice long term. Reward yourself with
> one of those mint juleps.
>

Jerry is gonna hate this, but you can take those Giles figures and file them in the circular recepticle.

You can't go with pars. Pars assume a track speed that is static. Take the advice of the gardener. Check your weather conditions.

What unadultered drivel.

receptacle even










Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/13/2006 09:05PM by Chuckles_the_Clown2.