Michael D. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Buck .....
>
> i think mckee is one of the keys to this years
> derby. i think LR is the real deal, but he did
> finish a bit slow yesterday (forget where he
> finished, that was not a good group of horses).
> speed galore signed up for the may 6 race... if
> mckee gets too close to a :45 pace (assuming
> neutral conditions), LR could be flatter than a
> pancake at the wire. they all need to be rated
> properly in order to win, but you have a young
> jock in mckee, and the odds will be low. is it
> possible that, for the second year in a row, we
> see the best three year old lose in the derby
> because he ran too fast early?
>
>

Afleet Alex didn't run too fast early. He had a sick race in his run up, a big effort in his final prep and was on the wrong part of the track for too long on the big day.

On the other hand, Bellamania caught the best part of the track until very late and folded like the Big Top after the elephants are out and went on to prove his mediocrity by having a loose on the lead trip at Saratoga and quitting in the last 1/8th again. The best cleaners in Korea can't get his wrinkles out.

Bellamania is however a very good analytical tool for how this Derby could possibly pan out.