Re: Lawyer Ron Wilts Em (642 Views)
Posted by:
richiebee (IP Logged)
Date: April 16, 2006 01:26AM
Chuckpasser:
Yes, that was quite a performance by the Barrister today. My unjaded view(I didn't bet the race after a long day of wrestling with the NYRA product) was that he fought against his rider's attempted restraint for about a half mile and coasted home for the last 3/8s. He is now undefeated in main track events, not counting polytrack.(Speaking of Polytrack, the Lane's End Winner had the best view of the finish of the Arkansas Derby).
Lawyer looked like an additional furlong in three weeks would present no problem. He is sired by Langfuhr, who was a champion sprinter in Canada, having won some prestigious sprint stakes in New York (Vosburgh,Forego, Carter, Met Mile). Some of Langfuhr's get have done well racing at additional distances, most notably Canadian champions Wando (Canadian Triple Crown Winner,I think) and Mobil. And of course there was Imperialism, third in Smarty's Derby, who was beaten 6 lengths after racing in traffic for nearly a mile. (Imperialism was carrying the extra weight of my rather large future wager).
Keener students of pace may dispute this, but Steppenwolfer looked to have run a "suck up" second. And not to sound like a currently exiled poster, Private Vow probably deserves some consideration for attempting to run with Lawyer during the middle stages of the race. And now here's some real modern school of performance figure handicapping heresy-- Private Vow may be the only Dual Qualifier facing the starter if he goes in the Derby. PV has already won a 2 turn stake at CD, will be making his 3rd start of the year, and could be a decent price in exactas, tris, supers, etc.
Sinister Minister-- way to go, Chuckles, I hope the beer was cold. When I see that SA 62500 maiden claiming win it brings back memories of another Derby winner of recent years. Chuckles, I will let you fill me in on Old Trieste as a sire, but I am very familiar with this colt's damsire, The Prime Minister. The PM was a Whittingham trained colt by Deputy Minister out of the great producer Stick to Beauty. Stick to Beauty produced GOLD BEAUTY,champion sprinter and dam of Dayjur (European Champion) and Maplejinsky (multiple Gr I SW, dam of Champion Sky Beauty, second dam of BC Distaff winner Pleasant Home). The mere presence of the Stick to Beauty bloodline in this colt's pedigree assures that I will bet boldly and blindly on this Baffert blur.
SM will probably be a bit overbet based on his deceptively easy BG win (Imagine they hold a 750K race and none of the contenders show up) and the fact that he will work brilliantly leading up to the Derby. As to First Sam, do you really think Bailey would have retired if this was a Derby colt?
I do not understand, Chuckles, your embrace of Keyed Entry and your disdain of Barbaro. Q: What can you say about Barbaro's Fla Derby that you cant say about B and J's Wood, or SNS's Ill Derby, or Bro Derek's SA Derby, or LR's Ark Derby or SM's Blue Grass? A: Barbaro was the only one of these winners who had to show gameness in the late stages of his race. The others won their preps rather easily, facing overmatched or undermedicated foes. I haven't compared numbers yet, but Barbaro is distance enabled and probably can be rated. He will be undefeated and may be underbet come Derby Day.
NYRA note: Risky Agenda, full sister to Riskaverse, 3rd in her first turf try, strong gallop out,likely future stakes performer, somebody please tell Pat Kelly to quit naming Samyn on horses so the old bastard can retire already.