Stay Off The Pipe (1022 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: April 21, 2006 02:26PM
More crack being smoked on 11th street:
According to the Thoroughbred Times (free Ragozin numbers!), Lawyer Ron got a 6 for the Arkansas Derby. That's way off, but not the point right now-- I'm interested in focusing on the kind of mistakes that anyone with common sense (or in this case, eyes) can understand. Because they also say that third place finisher Private Vow got a 7.
Now, PV was beaten 4 1/4 lengths, which is just over 2 points on both our scales at this distance, so if LR got a 6, that brings PV to an 8 or a little higher. The two horses were at level weights, no change there. So PV must have raced a good deal wider, right? In fact, a total of 2 paths wider, counting both turns, to get to where Ragozin has him.
Well, watch the race. PV is just outside LR on the first turn-- that's one length. But on the second turn, he's on the rail and actually INSIDE LR, who is on the lead, but well off the rail-- the total ground loss is about a wash. Meaning, LR should get a number 2-2 1/2 points better, depending on exactly what ground you want to give him on the second turn.
Fellas-- this one wasn't tough. Those horses are on the lead, on camera every second. You can't miss it.
Miff-- from the figures TT has published, there are some serious differences. I'll have more to say about all of this over the next week or so.
Edited 3 time(s). Last edit at 04/21/2006 04:28PM by TGJB.