bellsbendboy Wrote:
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> Over the last year or so Wayne Lukas has made a
> bit of a fool of himself, and this years 11 wins
> in some 153 starts, validates that theory. So
> entering a maiden in the Grade II Lexington is no
> surprise to us.
>
> During this time, most, if not all, of his horses
> have run off in their works. Generally, each
> furlong is slower than the one before, with the
> finish under some pressure and the horse tiring
> noticably.
>
> As a handicapper, I relish change and the work
> Special Interest turned in last Sunday certainly
> applies. Working alone the fractions being :13.3
> :12 :12.2 :11.4 :11.2 with a very,very good
> gallop out.
>
> I see this years Lexington as a bit weak.
> Barclay's colt will race with a spider shoe, the
> ouside speed couldn't be any cheaper, Greeley's
> Legacy worked awful etc..
>
> Wondering if I am still a bit hung over or on to
> something? Any thoughts?

Lukas has jumped up in this race in the past with Charismatic and Proud Citizen. He didn't do it with a maiden off a Polytrack figure performance though and that last was dismal. Unless I heard of a real good excuse for that Maiden flop last you'd have to factor Special Interest very poorly here.

The interesting fact is the two favorites have employed the same front end pace style and they have a tough sprinter in Fast Parade to face which will make the pace and positioning very interesting. Like Now has lost when relinquishing the lead for any real time and its hard to see him outfooting Fast Parade early. For Fast Parade its got to be Speed Pop or bust. Showing Up could pick up the pieces but at 8-5 or less is that where you want your money riding? If you KNEW Showing Up was serious about trying to make the Derby field that might be a different factor.

This is probably a watcher, but will consider a flyer on Fast Parade if the odds are in the 6-1 or more range.