It is a war room of sorts! After all when handicapping the Derby one can't allow oneself to be fall victim to a "Breeding Mineshaft Gap"...George C. Scott

That was really too funny Richie. And leaned towards accurate on some points. I do scan all the relevant replays and suspecting you saw what I'm referring to, its possible Sinister Minister Jumped an observation stand shadow at the eighth pole. He went squirrely and got on the wrong lead at that point. It could have been fatigue, but he did finish as well as anyone.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_videos/index.html?videonumber=91&videotype=racing

Its also possible he's shying from the Grandstand for some reason. Note how close he got to the rail in the Blue Grass before Gomez laced a left handed tattoo upon him. Note also how hes running down the backstretch with his mouth wide open. This is a unique animal.

Take a look at the California Derby. Note how Garcia is strangling him on the backside. I think that type of restraint is over for this horse. Think Cause to Believe gets by him if all his momentum is not stopped by the rail? Why did he bolt? I'm not sure. Theres the Grandstand shadow closer to the finish line. Maybe Jerry knows. I can spot issues, just don't understand horses well enough to say why.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_videos/index.html?videonumber=47&videotype=racing

Dana666 is absolutely right about Brother Derek. He shuts down at the end of the race. Despite that I think she favors him. Maybe he knows when his job is done. Maybe hes close to all in.

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2006/derby_videos/index.html?videonumber=80&videotype=racing

Also in the end I will use pedigree to separate closely matched horses, looking for the horse that has genetics predisposed to running hard at the distance and I scan those pedigrees for hours. Pedigree is a tough call. I was sure Funny Cide would relish the Belmont and was wrong of course. My recent Belmont record is not good. 1999 was the last time I picked the winner of that race. But I've won my share of them and utilize Pedigree for it more than other races.

I respect all the Derby horses. They are the cream and unless they are getting bandwagon banged I try to say good things about them, but I'm really down to two serious horses for the time being. That may change. Theres more work yet to be done.

Shug hasn't been in touch yet, but I'm available for a season to the stallions produced.

Don't forget the Godolphin Barb.

p.s. my memory is short. I had Alex in the Belmont last year. but was beaten out of the important exotics.





richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> ....that imagines at this time of the year the
> controversial Derby loving Chuckles the Clown has
> transformed his living space into a Derby "bunker"
> if you will?
>
> ...that there are multiple monitors showing race
> replays and pan shots from tracks around the
> country, maybe even around the world?
>
> ...that there are scattered throughout the bunker
> old volumes of Stallion Registers,charts from
> Derbies in the near and distant past, obscure
> nicking patterns and tracts by Rasmussen and
> Tesio?
>
> In my mind I think of the War Room in Dr
> Strangelove (Gentlemen! There will be no fighting
> in the War Room!) or maybe the curtained lair of
> the Wizard of Oz.
>
> One thing is for certain, if we don't take him too
> seriously, Chuckles will take us through a
> veritable magical mystery tour of the 20 Derby
> contenders. They will all at one time or another
> be mortal locks or throwouts,sometimes both in the
> same hour.
>
> CTC will probably occasionally post his Derby top
> ten contenders list. It may have six horses, it
> may have 14 horses.
>
> One thing I have learned is that even more
> difficult than picking the winner of a complex
> Derby is figuring out who CTC likes to win. To get
> him to commit to one selection before the race is
> like driving a nail through the proverbial blob of
> mercury.
>
> Don't dare question Man of Chuckle's take on a
> pedigree.. he will bury you with links tracing a
> pedigree back to Eclipse, the Byerely Turk and the
> Darley Arabian.
>
> After the Derby, CTC will likely dismantle the
> bunker and enjoy some brews for a few months,
> eventually reappearing in September as the BC
> preps begin.
>
> I for one will enjoy the spectacle of CTC in full
> Derby stride... and by the way, Chuckles, have the
> Phipps' contacted you yet about that bloodstock
> position?






Edited 2 time(s). Last edit at 04/22/2006 11:45PM by Chuckles_the_Clown2.