richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> NCT and CTC:
>
> Will be suspending studies of the big race for
> a round of Saturday golf.
>
> Best of luck in your wagering endeavors today.
> I need to start looking into the Oaks, because
> with a full field on Friday that Oaks/Derby
> gimmick can be fun. When else can you be "alive in
> the double" for 24 hours?
>
> Chuckles, I haven't heard any comments from
> you on Bro Derek's pedigree..
>
> My "Top Ten" remains unchanged. With
> anticipated odds:
>
> 1) SNS (6/1)
> 2) B and J (10/1)
> 3) Point D (15/1)
> 4) Jazil (30+/1)


To my eye, Bro Derek's pedigree isn't the real problem. He's obviously a very high spirited horse as is indicated in his running lines. He wants to be in front and theres been no effort by Hendricks to attempt to put some rating into his game. Theres been no need to. The fields he's faced with the exception of the Breeders Cup Juveniles didn't have enough speed to encourage rating was necessary. That said, Mister Triester is a quick horse.

Now, they have to win at an extra poll with a protracted pace duel or suddenly learn to rate kindly behind the pace. I just don't see the latter happening, you have to factor winning with the former.

Benchmark is a great horse and could sire any kind. I'm much less enamored with the Siyah Kalem part of his pedigree and the near Relaunch. If you expand his pedigree to trace the 8 major branches the branch I really like is Gavel Gerties sire branch (Flit To) But her female family (Marisa) is so weak it leaves you wondering why they bothered.

p.s. Bro's mare is grey and when the color descends I generally factor the ability descending similarly. She got her grey from Relauch.

Bottom line, he's already proven hes a good 9 mark horse. I don't see enough to believe more ground under pressure is up his alley. But I'm factoring his prefered running style, his shutdowns post wire, his propensity to get worked up (and sedated by the way) and the conditions he will be facing Derby Day more than pedigree. In another setting, I'd be more prone to think he'd cross the wire first at 10 marks. Like if he could run against his Santa Anita Derby competition again. Sure, 10 marks no problem.



Edited 1 time(s). Last edit at 04/29/2006 09:37AM by Chuckles_the_Clown2.