Jerry,

Reference is made to your post concerning the "extremely tough decision" you had making figures for the Illinois Derby. [Ragozin had it four points faster!?] I don't know your numbers for that race yet, but for what it's worth, I'd like to suggest that the second place horse, MISTER TRIESTER, ran faster than you may have figured. My thinking has to do with the following spin:

Beware the horses from owner B. Wayne Hughes shipping East from California, like MISTER TRIESTER in the 2006 Illinois Derby. [Shipped to their new environ, are they subject to a different, more aggressive vet? Can they explode?]

Remember last year's Illinois Derby? Owner B. Wayne Hughes' GREELEY'S GALAXY came to Chicago from Santa Anita and ran a preposterously huge new top to win. His ThoroGraphs going into that race were 12... 7... 4... and then the animal had an orgasm when he hit Chicago. He ran a -2! A NEGATIVE 2! [The stunningly fast effort fried the horse, by the way.]

Later that Spring, owner B. Wayne Hughes' DON'T GET MAD came East to the Derby Trial from California and also ran a preposterous new top to win. His ThoroGraphs going into the race were 7... 5... 9... and then, at Churchill Downs... WHAM! He ran a 2! A week later - A WEEK LATER! - he repeated that 2 to get into the Kentucky Derby superfecta! [Thereafter, back in California, DON'T GET MAD ran poorly in the Swaps. But he later revived when shipped back East to Mr. Midwest Vet: DGM got fourth at Saratoga in the Travers and thereafter won the Indiana Derby.]

Flash forward to this year's Illinois Derby. B. Wayne Hughes' MISTER TRIESTER came from California off a relatively slow 8.5, saves ground up-front and finishes a game 2nd, beaten only by the Derby-bound SWEETSOUTHERNSAINT. Did he too run big when shipped East for Mr. Hughes? Just like the two others cited above?

Maybe this is all meaningless. Still, I'm throwing that out for your consideration. Maybe the race was faster than you think.

JohnTChance