D Deb:

I enjoy watching the old derbies and reading the old charts to glean what the past tells us about derby winners/losers. I did not start following horse racing until 1990, so everything before that is history to me and I enjoy watching what happened.

I think todays derby is different only in the sense that the fields are larger which usually brings about a faster pace which would cause various results on a race. Closers have more traffic to pass, front runners may have more company on the front end, post position and racing luck are huge.

Every Derby has a different pace and is run on a different style track. I would love for Unbridled to be in this year's derby, a legitimate closer may eat this field's lunch.

Trying to use last year's race to explain things is futile. I saw Afleet Alex in person at Oaklawn and I thought the pace of that derby made him a sure thing. I still think Rose moved to early costing Alex the race, but he just seemed to flatten out when he got through in the stretch. Other horses had peaked too soon and were not ready for the torrid pace. Some were not seasoned enough.

The same principles apply each year, some this year have peaked and some just don't have enough races under their belt. Yes, a miler can win this year's derby and any year's derby, but I don't think you handicap the race that way. Stay in this game long enough and you play the odds, toss the "x" horses and play those that are live.