scottv Wrote:
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> SNS bothers me because of his eagerness to rate
> within 2 lengths of the lead. Yes, I see his
> closing times, but if this were any other race,
> (and arguably it is), I would be concerned that he
> has not shown the ability to rate off of
> blistering pace, like B Derek has done and CTB in
> No. California. CTB bothers me also because he
> looks so small, but I think he will enjoy a big
> field and is a great ITM bet.
>
> Ten Most Wanted costs me a bunch of money a few
> years ago and I still have that in my head making
> me suspicious of the Ill Derby. Also, watching
> the tape of the Gotham bothers me because this
> horse could not get by LN and Kentry.
>
> While his Ill Derby figure may be out of sight,
> can he run a race with a 45/25 quarter? Can he
> close if he chooses to sit back 10 lengths?
>

All good questions...

I'm not sure what your talking about with Brother Derek sitting off the pace. He did it once at 4 1/2f in his first race. Not sure how that helps now.

CTB - size doesn't matter

SNS - no way in hell Desormeaux is going to get sucked into some suicidal speed duel. Get out a film of the 2000 Derby and watch how he handled FuPeg - I expect something similar. Anyone near a crazy pace is going to stop - I don't give a damn who it is... .as for the Gotham, watch the film again, he comes home in 30 3/5 for the final 5/16 while being hung out to dry on both turns. Like Now was equal weights with SNS and had the rail clearly giving SNS a better number. Keyed Entry was giving four pounds but was in the 2 path, probably a very similar number to SNS.