Re: Sunriver; Keeneland (641 Views)
Posted by:
TGJB (IP Logged)
Date: April 27, 2006 01:30PM
An interesting study-- and we're not going to be the ones to do it, we've been doing studies up the wazoo for the seminar-- would be to look at all the horses that have come out of the BG, and compare how the winners have done compared to the also-rans. I can certainly remember one that came in off the off race, and it was very good to us.
On SNS-- at least one horse out of the Ill Derby will be running back this weekend. If by some chance that one runs 1 3/4 points faster than I gave him (or pairs up), things will be a lot easier. Whatever we do will be done by the time we put up the final set with the seminar Wed night, and I'll announce it here.
The more you look at this stuff, the more you realize it all comes down to asking the right questions.
My point on betting the Derby was not to spread too much just to cash. Get value on your play, and sometimes (not always) that means keeping it simple. But I do NOT think the Derby is just another race when it comes to betting-- it is the race I have done the best on by far, and there are reasons for it (understanding of 3yo patterns, accurate data, lots of dumb money in the pools, lots of information available publicly, etc.). I wish they ran the damn thing once a week.