This was Real Quiet's year. My key horse was Indian Charlie. I think he was the favorite at about 3-1. He was coming in off an overpowering Santa Anita Derby, but finished 3rd and to my knowledge never raced again. I'm guessing the archives say he topped in the Santa Anita Derby and he was coming in upon light foundation too is my recollection. Heck, let me check that in the Archives...brb...Yep, he came in off a 3 point top, while his stablemate was coming in off a one point forge.

http://www.thorograph.com/archive/files/derby1998.pdf

You live and learn, still he appears to have gone off in the Derby and whether that was attributable to his Santa Anita effort is anyone's guess. That said, even Baffert thought Indian Charlie was his best chance. Apparently, TGraph felt it was Real Quiet to Baffert's astonishment.

But this topic is not about the placing horses or the payoffs. Its about the 10th place finisher. That horse was Old Trieste.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/old+trieste

Trieste was a morning line 15-1 and went off at 32-1. Whats notable about his runup to the Kentucky Derby is that he worked the fastest ever six furlongs at Churchill Downs preparing for the race. That work was in 1.09

He may have left his race in training, but at 32-1 I included him in my bet. His pattern looked correct to me for another good one, but fate intervened and he stumbled at the start and several horses beat him to the turn. Old Trieste had already proven an affinity for the surface in that lightning work and by the beginning of the backstretch he not only had the lead, but he was over 3 lengths clear. However, the cumulative energy dissipation of the Top, the Work, and the bad break was too much for him to overcome and he stopped after a mile. He was a wirey little horse and he's passed much of that on to some of his get.

I have a theory. My theory is that some horses do not like certain surfaces, but it goes deeper than that. My theory is that the descendants of horses that had surface preferences or disinclinations will generally have those same preferences or disinclinations and I'm not talking turf or dirt. I'm referring to Calder or Belmonts main track.

So what does all this amount to? Not much really, except this. I think Old Trieste really like Churchill Downs and thats despite finishing 10th.

http://horseracing.about.com/gi/dynamic/offsite.htm?site=http://www.cbs.sportsline.com/u/racing/horse/triplecrown98/derby/results2.htm