I calculated projected Derby odds based on the payouts with the 4 fillies who took the most money in the Oaks betting. Here’s the list:

Jazil – 25
Steppenwolfer – 23
Keyed Entry – 37
Sinister Minister – 15
Point Determined – 6
Showing Up – 31
Bob and John – 10
Barbaro – 9/2
Sharp Humor – 39
AP Warrior – 10
Sweetnorthernsaint – 5.5
Private Vow – 43
Bluegrass Cat – 34
Deputy Glitters - 100
Seaside Retreat – 120
Cause to Believe – 46
Lawyer Ron – 10
Brother Derek – 7
Storm Treasure – 85
Flashy Bull – 98

I’d expect that, based on the results of the Oaks, the longshots and the closers might see more play than this method projects.