So bottom line, if you did the right kind of study over a large sampling, it would be indicative. The one Jimbo proposed-- based on an idea I had put forward-- was to take the last 3 of each horse, throw out the worst one, and average the other two. That would give a general picture of how fast each horse is. There are lots of ways you could then do the study (there are some statistics guys out there, I'm sure they have ideas), and we all might learn something. Like whether a "right' figure is right.

jerry, you have the database and staff, why not run a study to get a baseline win % and baseline r.o.i?

then you can challenge ragozin to do the same?

i will tell you that the odds are that the r.o.i. will show a loss, but thats nothing to be afraid of.