Mike,

i share your view. my thoughts going in yesterday:

bernardini had three races in '06. hard to believe either of the first two were taxing efforts for a horse this fast. last was a big new top, but the horse appeared to do it within himself. he runs very smoothly, eats up a ton of ground with every stride. i just didn't get the sense that he expended enough energy set him back in the short run. at 12-1, you forget about the bounce.

i kind of got the same feeling with SNS. the ill derby was very fast, but he did it so easily, finished so well, i just didn't think it was a knock out effort. the derby was just a disaster trip. so bad, in fact, that he probably saved some energy late by getting beat so bad. i thought he was ready to go yesterday, despite the short rest. at 8-1, forget about the bounce. if this guy comes back in less than four weeks, however, i would play him to go back. i do think he left everything on the track yesterday.

as for bro derek, coming into the derby, he had four races since the BC last year, all nicely spaced. i thought he would run pretty well in the derby, and with the wide trip, he did. i thought he ran a grueling race in the derby however. he ran very fast from start to finish. i thought that effort was much more taxing than SNS's. coming back on two weeks rest at 3-1 he was a use underneath only.

this isn't classic "bounce" theory, but i do think you have to look at the individual efforts involved, not just the numbers.